Preliminary analysis of the impact of design-stage uncertainties on the performance of microgrids

This paper presents an analysis of how design-stage uncertainties affect the operational performance of a microgrid, measured through metrics like fuel consumption, excess renewable energy, hardware utilisation and economic feasibility. The results show that as uncertainties in the load and weather data used to size the microgrid increase, so do the performance risks. The weather resource results show that a significant economic and technical performance change can occur between different years. The research also considered the impact of utilising three dispatch strategies during microgrid sizing and later operations. The results display the importance of taking the dispatch strategy into consideration during the sizing process, as it ultimately influences and amplifies operational performance impacts. The Predictive Dispatch strategy system shows the best performance initially due to the smaller component sizes realised but performs noticeably worse compared to other strategies when uncertainties occur. This study also highlights the risk of using a deterministic program where only one specific solution is given, compared to following a probabilistic approach to microgrid sizing.