Load and load growth models for rural microgrids, and how to future-proof designs

Deep rural households are the main areas still not electrified in South Africa despite the country's very successful electrification programme. This group of households, in many ways, are ideal for electrification by means of off-grid installations. The main challenge in the electrification of these households is the unavailability of accurate load models to inform proposed microgrid planning and design. This is due to the high level of uncertainty in the load demand and future load growth of these households. Therefore, there is a need to conduct a literature review on load models suitable for use in designing electrification solutions for these households. This study provides a survey of the available rural microgrids load modelling literature, and then evaluates industry standards and load growth models. It concludes by evaluating how load and load growth model uncertainties can be mitigated / future-proofed through technology selection during microgrid designs.