Modeling Worm Propagation and Insider Threat in Air-Gapped Network using Modified SEIQV Model

Computer worms pose a major threat to computer and communication networks due to the rapid speed at which they propagate. Biologically based epidemic models have been widely used to analyze the propagation of worms in computer networks. For an air-gapped network with an insider threat, we propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Quarantined-Vaccinated (SEIQV) model called the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Quarantined-Patched (SEIQP) model. We describe the assumptions that apply to this model, define a set of differential equations that characterize the system dynamics, and solve for the basic reproduction number. We then simulate and analyze the parameters controlled by the insider threat to determine where resources should be allocated to attain different objectives and results.