Linear and Quadratic Regression Model to Predict the Number of Electricity Distributed in Indonesia

PT PLN (Persero) is a state-owned electricity company of the Republic of Indonesia that has a long-term power plant project planning. In the electricity supply business plan 2018-2027 it is stated that in 2027 the number of PLN customers is estimated to reach 82.11 million in the household sector and 7 million in the business sector. With the increasing number of their customers, PLN is required to know about the amount of electricity that must be distributed. This study uses linear and quadratic regression models to predict the amount of electricity distributed by PLN in 2027, especially for the household and business sectors using available historical data. The data contains the number of PLN customers and the amount of electricity distributed from 1995 to 2015. This study shows that the linear and quadratic regression models have competitive results based on the coefficient of determination. Since the quadratic regression method has a higher R
²
value, then this model can be used to predict electricity distributed in 2027. Using the quadratic model, the amount of electricity distributed in 2027 is estimated at 157,000.1 GWh in the household sector and 109,175.0 GWh in the business sector.