System Analysis of the Effectiveness of Regional Energy System Management in the Conditions of Transformation

The regional energy complex is a complicated developing system. In this regard, in the context of transformation of the methods of organization and management of energy enterprises it is relevant to undertake a comprehensive study of approaches that allow to describe the production and economic interconnections of the energy system, assess the effectiveness of the energy complex management on the basis of mathematical models, taking into account the contribution of the resources to the final performance indicators. On the basis of the statistical data system analysis of the energy system of the Samara region for the period from 1976 to 2018 was carried out. The basic factors of production are investigated. The indicators of the quality of functioning are defined which are the marginal productivities of using of the core resources characterizing the controllability of energy production. Adequate mathematical models in the form of heterogeneous three-factor production functions of the Cobb-Douglas type were constructed on the basis of statistical data in the studied period of operation of the power system. It allows to use the resultant models in simulation and to build predictive options for the future behavior of energy production under various control actions. The contributions of factors affecting the scale of energy production and the improvement of technological processes to the change in the production efficiency of generating companies were identified for the period under review of the operation of the power system. The assessment of the influence of these factors on the energy system of the Samara region is carried out. The internal regularities of the dynamics of the behavior of the power system in phase portraits in the state space of the quality indicators of energy production are investigated. Phase portraits revealed significant instability of the processes, determined the presence of generic regularities of system behavior. In general, the analysis identified the main factors affecting the manageability of the regional energy system.