Electric Heating Load Forecasting Model and Method Based on Monte Carlo Method

In order to solve the problem of electric heating load forecasting, there is no effective theoretical basis and method of calculation and analysis. Under the background of large-scale electric heating, this paper thoroughly analyses the influencing factors of electric heating load from the aspects of user's electric heating law, equipment power characteristics, heating scale and peak-valley electricity price policy. Based on the statistical basis of user's travel law data, this paper studies and puts forward the electric heating load forecasting model based on Monte Carlo method, and puts forward the calculation and analysis process and method. For example, the load characteristic curve of 200 electric heating users is simulated, and the maximum load simultaneous rate is calculated. Suggestions for selection of simultaneous rate are given. The results show that this method can effectively predict the load of electric heating, and can effectively guide the planning and construction of electric heating matching power grid.