The Establishment of Convective Weather Forecasting System Applied to Air Traffic Management in North China

The first-generation convective weather forecasting system has been developed by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC)/Meteorological Center of North China Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) models. The established system can assimilate the hourly radar data in North China and provide the 0-9 h forecast of severe convective weather (thunderstorm.etc). Complex cloud analysis technique is applied in the assimilation with radar reflectivity data to modify the hydrometeors and the temperature in the clouds, which benefits the prediction of the occurrence, development and evolution of severe convection and shortens the spin-up time of the forecasting system. In addition, the dynamical characteristics of severe convection are improved by the assimilation of radar radial velocity. This forecasting system has been implemented since the year 2014 and continues to be optimized, which significantly improves the operational aviation weather service and adds much value for air traffic management and decision makers in North China.