Efficient Bayesian Optimization for Uncertainty Reduction Over Perceived Optima Locations

Bayesian optimization (BO) is concerned with efficient optimization using probabilistic methods. Predictive entropy search (PES) is a popular and successful BO strategy to find a point that maximizes the information gained about the optima location of an unknown function. Since the PES analytical form is intractable, it requires approximations and is computationally expensive. These approximations may degrade PES performance in terms of accuracy and efficiency. In this paper, we propose an alternative scheme - predictive variance reduction search (PVRS) - to find a point that maximally reduces the uncertainty at the perceived optima locations. The optimization converges to the true optimum when the uncertainty at all perceived optima locations is vanished. Our novel modification is beneficial in two ways. First, PVRS can be computed in closed-form, unlike the approximations made in PES. Second, PVRS is simple and easy to implement. As a result, the proposed PVRS gains huge speed up for scalable BO whilst showing favorable optimization efficiency. Furthermore, we extend our PVRS framework for batch setting where we select multiple experiments for parallel evaluations at each iteration. Empirically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the PVRS on both benchmark functions and real-world applications in standard and batch BO settings.