Research on Black Swan in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the Belt and Road Countries

Black swan is prevalent in emerging markets, leading to affect long-term returns. These outliers have stronger power to determine the performance. This paper from the perspective of big data by using these 9 emerging markets from the belt and road countries and about 60000 daily returns presents that the small outliers have a significant massive effect on long-term performance. Compared with some Asia countries, the Central and Eastern Europe countries' analysis results have some irreplaceable advantages, such as low risk, stable returns, and diversified advantages. From the data analysis, we draw the conclusion that black swans are caused by a cause which means it can be predicted in the forward investment market. For the long-term investment of emerging markets, in good and bad times, maintaining a certain degree of passivity and diversification of investment plays a crucial role.