A multi-state model for wind farms considering operational outage probability

As one of the most important renewable energy resources, wind power has drawn much attention in recent years. The stochastic characteristics of wind speed lead to generation output uncertainties of wind energy conversion system (WECS) and affect power system reliability, especially at high wind power penetration levels. Therefore, a more comprehensive analysis toward WECS as well as an appropriate reliability assessment model are essential for maintaining the reliable operation of power systems. In this paper, the impact of wind turbine outage probability on system reliability is firstly developed by considering the following factors: running time, operating environment, operating conditions, and wind speed fluctuations. A multistate model for wind farms is also established. Numerical results illustrate that the proposed model can be well applied to power system reliability assessment as well as solving a series of reliability-centered decision-making problems of power system scheduling and maintenance arrangements.