Method of quantitative evaluation of the risk of benefits for investors of fodder-producing cooperatives

The proposed method of quantitative evaluation of the risk of benefits for investors of the projects of fodder-producing cooperatives expects fulfillment of four stages. Those stages are based on a developed model of evaluation of the risk of their benefits. It secures a system consideration of probability of some variable factors of performance of a project's product (fodder production in a cooperative). The research takes into account a stochastic character of transformation of a market component of the project environment. Application of the proposed method supplies precise results of the forecast of variable quantitative indices of the risk of benefits for investors of the projects of fodder-producing cooperatives with consideration of the desired figure of their profit. Basing on use of the developed computer program for evaluation of the risk of benefits for investors of the projects of fodder-producing cooperatives, it is possible to examine the tendencies of changes of forecasted quantitative indices of the risk of benefits of their investors. The research was carried out within Zabolottsi amalgamated territorial community in Brody district, Lviv region. It is confirmed that while implementing the project of a fodder-producing cooperative on the territory of Zabolottsi amalgamated territorial community, increase of a minimum expected figure of investors' profit from 160 to 400 thousand UAH changes its probability from 0.68 to 0.21. Moreover, the risk of making a profit by investors of the project of a fodder-producing cooperative changes from an average to a critical one. The proposed instruments for making managerial decisions concerning quantitative evaluation of the risk of benefits for investors of fodder-producing cooperative improve quality and speed up implementation of those decisions.