Research on Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Aggregation Algorithm of Wind Power Uncertainty Function

According to the root mean square statistics of wind power prediction error and prediction lead time show an exponential function, the uncertainty function model of wind power is established in this paper. In order to study the influence of seasonal variation and diurnal variation on uncertainty of wind power, a time aggregation uncertainty function of wind power is established. In order to study the influence of wind power spatial distribution on wind power uncertainty, a wind power spatial uncertainty function is established. In this paper, the wind power uncertainty aggregation algorithm is used to solve the real wind farm data, and the effects of seasonal variation and spatial distribution on wind power prediction power error are quantitatively analyzed.