Modelling of Hourly Wind Generation using Pan-European Climatic Data Base and Weibull Probability Distribution

The Pan-European Climatic Data Base contains country-specific hourly wind capacity factors for 34 years back. On the basis of this data for every single hour out of a non-leap year the most appropriate type of probabilistic distribution is determined. Analyses show that Weibull distribution most accurately reflects the stochastic nature of the wind speed as a random process in time. The shape and the scale parameters of this distribution are modeled with the aim to identify the seasonal and diurnal trends in the variation of the corresponding capacity factors. The results would afford universal application of the said models when assessing or forecasting the system adequacy in different time horizons.