Regional Short-Term System Adequacy Forecasting Using Analytical Probabilistic Approach

Regional short-term system adequacy forecasting is performed based on an updated version of the model presented by the authors in previous papers which uses separate probabilistic models of dispatchable and non-dispatchable generation types. The updated version includes more accurate modelling of hourly wind generations based on Weibull distribution. The proposed probabilistic approach is in line with the fourth European Union energy package draft proposals concerning internal market for electricity, risk-preparedness and capacity mechanism assessments. Additional function for allocating exports from countries with positive balance to countries needing imports is provided based on two optional criteria. The resulting adequacy forecasts for a selected week are being compared with the results of the current short-term system adequacy model currently applied at ENTSO-E level.