Evaluating the Efficiency of Managing the Population Reproduction

Cybernetic approach to fertility modeling that allows reflecting the effect of demographic policies on the age-specific birth rates is presented. Reproduction is considered as a dynamic system with its inputs and outputs. The reaction of the age-specific birth rates to a set of demographic policies is considered as transient response. The latter can be used to predict the natality dynamics. Short-term and long-term predictions are reported, the former proved to be quite reliable.