Methods of Analysis of the Space System Application Process in Forecasting of the Development of Regional Natural Emergency

The article proposes a method for analysis of the preparing process of a special designation space systems for ensuring functioning of the information system of the area of the Russian Federation in case of a regional emergency. The system is based on the topological transformation method of the stochastic network. The peculiarity of the obtained solution is the systematic consolidation of the stochastic network, which enables to simplify the formal recording of its equivalent function and the subsequent procedure for determining the distribution function of the implementation time of the simulated process of preparing the space system for use in predicting the development of a natural emergency. The developed method is based on the interaction model of the main parameters of the functioning of space systems (SS). Based on the analysis method, one can estimate the time needed for SS preparation to use in threat of a natural disaster.