Estimation of the Probability of Integration of Photovoltaic Microgeneration using Fuzzy Logic

There is a great diversification of the sources used for the generation of electric energy in Brazil, which was accentuated with Normative Resolution 482 of 2012, of the National Agency of Electric Energy (ANEEL). From this resolution and the creation of some governmental policies, the participation of the Distributed Photovoltaic Generation (DPG) in the electric system began to be made feasible and its penetration levels tend to increase continuously. Therefore, it is necessary to develop methods capable of estimating the potential of DPG integration in the distribution system, so that the distributor can adapt it when necessary and carry out more reliable planning. Therefore, this paper proposes a methodology, based on fuzzy logic, to estimate the probabilities of DPG insertion in low voltage networks. The variables adopted reflect the trends in the electricity sector, such as energy prices, the cost of photovoltaic systems (PVS), the incentives given to the DPG, the attractiveness of the DPG and the time of return on investment. The output of the fuzzy inference system presents a probability of integrating the DPG into the current distribution system.