Scenario analysis of CO2 emission peak in road transport of Chinese provinces: A case study of Guangdong

Guangdong, a developed province of China, attaches great importance to CO2 emissions in transport these years, especially in road transport. To explore the way to achieve CO2 emission peak of road transport in such a typical province, multiple scenarios were designed, including a baseline scenario, four single mitigation scenarios, and three combined mitigation scenarios. The peaking regularity and scale of provincial CO2 emissions and mitigation potential until 2035 were quantitatively evaluated. The assessment results showed that CO2 emissions kept rapid growth without control and reached 315.4 Mt in 2035. The peak of CO2 emission by 2030 could not be addressed by single mitigation measures. But combination of four single mitigation scenarios could drive CO2 emissions to peak in 2030 at the level of 171.3 Mt. The peak appeared later at higher level of CO2 emissions compared with UK (30.5%) and Australian (45.6%). Therefore, the CO2 emissions from road transport in such a developed province should be constrained in the future. A strong policy combination to constrain provincial CO2 emissions is necessary for sharing the target of CO2 emission reduction in China.