Determination Method Based on Bayesian Theory for Equipment Field Failure Rate

Aiming to the problems of domestic database missing, strong universality with insufficient specificity in the abroad database and the utilization of sample information collected by enterprises, the thesis studies how to obtain accurate field failure rate of equipment. Bayesian method is selected by analyzing and comparing various reliability data processing methods. Bayesian method is applied to modify the database failure data to obtain a more practical equipment failure rate by taking the equipment failure rate provided by foreign database as a priori data, and collecting the related equipment failure rate of enterprises as sample data. In this thesis, it is proved that the failure rate estimation based on the Bayesian Method is more accurate and reasonable by comparing with the failure rate values estimated by classical points estimate method and the failure rate values inquired from the abroad database.