Sensitivity Analysis in a BRT System

Mobility investments have increased due to the inconvenience caused by delays, traffic jams and accidents. The Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) System is presented as an alternative to improve public transportation, as it can provide results with shorter travel time and lower costs, compared to other urban transportation systems. However, evaluating a system such as the BRT can be a complex task. Therefore, using analytical modeling can favor evaluation and improve planning, using performance metrics that can be calculated using these models. This work proposes a Stochastic Petri Net (SPN) model for evaluating the performance of a BRT System, focusing on sensitivity analyses to identify key factors that may affect Mean System Size, Mean Queue Size, Mean Queue Time and Utilization. Scenarios based on the BRT System were created, with the results showing that, from the managerial point of view, the factor that has the biggest impact on the chosen metrics is the interval between departures, which directly affects the formation of the queue, further affecting the passenger's arrival interval at the station or even the time of entry into the vehicle or the number of seats.