An Indicator Determination Technique based on Delphi Approach and Monte Carlo Simulation

During a research evaluation, a set of indicators is gathered according to evaluation target. The rationality measurement of these indicators is essential but difficult. In a traditional Delphi Approach (DA), experts grade the importance and feasibility of indicators, and then propose refinements to the initial indicators. Only those rated above average will be retained. During multi-round DA processes, the calculation is complex and may repeat several rounds. This study aimed to describe a new indicator selecting technique, by applying Monte Carlo simulation method onto Delphi Approach(MCDA). The modification of Delphi Approach, including its underlying assumptions and strengths, are explained in this article. To present this modified Delphi Approach, a brief demonstration is also discussed.