Data-Driven Capacity Bidding for Frequency Regulation

Frequency regulation is crucial for balancing the supply and demand of modern electricity grids. To provide regulation services, it is important to understand the capability of flexible resources to track regulation signals. This paper studies the problem of submitting capacity bids to a forward regulation market based on historical regulation signals. We consider an aggregator who manages a group of flexible resources with linear dynamic constraints. He seeks to find the optimal capacity bid, so that real-time regulation signals can be followed with an arbitrary guaranteed probability. We formulate this problem as a chance-constrained program with unknown regulation signal distributions. A sampling and discarding algorithm is proposed. It provably provides near-optimal solutions at a guaranteed probability of success without knowing the distribution of the regulation signals. This result holds for resources with arbitrary linear dynamics and allows arbitrary intra-hour data correlations. We validate the proposed algorithm with real data via numerical simulations. Two cases are studied: (1) CAISO market, where providers separately submit capacity estimates for regulation up and regulation down signals, (2) PJM market, where regulation up and down capacities are the same. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm provides near-optimal capacity estimates for both cases.