Load Forecasting of Privacy-Aware Consumers

The roll-out of smart meters (SMs) in the electric grid has enabled data-driven grid management and planning techniques. SM data can be used together with short-term load forecasts (STLFs) to overcome polling frequency constraints for better grid management. However, the use of SMs that report consumption data at high spatial and temporal resolutions entails consumer privacy risks, motivating work in protecting consumer privacy. The impact of privacy protection schemes on STLF accuracy is not well studied, especially for smaller aggregations of consumers, whose load profiles are subject to more volatility and are, thus, harder to predict. In this paper, we analyse the impact of two user demand shaping privacy protection schemes, model-distribution predictive control (MDPC) and load-levelling, on STLF accuracy. Support vector regression is used to predict the load profiles at different consumer aggregation levels. Results indicate that, while the MDPC algorithm marginally affects forecast accuracy for smaller consumer aggregations, this diminishes at higher aggregation levels. More importantly, the load-levelling scheme significantly improves STLF accuracy as it smoothens out the grid visible consumer load profile.