Electricity consumption forecasting in office buildings: an artificial intelligence approach

The rising needs for increased energy efficiency and better use of renewable energy sources bring out the necessity for improved energy management and forecasting models. Electricity consumption, in particular, is subject to large variations due to the effect of multiple variables, such as the temperature, luminosity or humidity, and of course, consumers' habits. Current forecasting models are not able to deal adequately with the influence and correlation between the multiple involved variables. Hence, novel, adaptive forecasting models are needed. This paper presents a novel approach based on multiple artificial intelligence-based forecasting algorithms. The considered algorithms are artificial neural networks, support vector machines hybrid fuzzy inference systems, Wang and Mendel's fuzzy rule learning method and a genetic fuzzy system for fuzzy rule learning based on the MOGUL methodology. These algorithms are used to forecast the electricity consumption of a real office building, using multiple input variables and consumption disaggregation.