Improved Adverse Drug Event Prediction Through Information Component Guided Pharmacological Network Model (IC-PNM)

Improving adverse drug event (ADE) prediction is highly critical in pharmacovigilance research. We propose a novel information component guided pharmacological network model (IC-PNM) to predict drug-ADE signals. This new method combines the pharmacological network model and information component, a Bayes statistics method. We use 33,947 drug-ADE pairs from the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) 2010 data as the training data, and the new 21,065 drug-ADE pairs from FAERS 2011-2015 as the validations samples. The IC-PNM data analysis suggests that both large and small sample size drug-ADE pairs are needed in training the predictive model for its prediction performance to reach an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve
$(\text{AUROC})= 0.82$
. On the other hand, the IC-PNM prediction performance improved to
$\text{AUROC}= 0.91$
if we removed the small sample size drug-ADE pairs from the prediction model during validation.