Economic and Risk Analysis of Small-Scale PV Systems in Brazil

The main objective of this paper is to provide a wider economic evaluation of small-scale PV investments for household consumers. The methodology includes the use of the Extended Multi-Index Methodology and the Monte Carlo Simulation. Therefore, the integration between the deterministic and stochastic approaches are taking into account. The investigation presented in this paper includes the analysis for different regions in Brazil considering the current regulatory structure of the Brazilian electricity sector. Throughout the methodology presented, the study aims to contribute to the sizing and to the economic analysis of photovoltaic power systems connected to the network in any region of the country. Findings of this study indicated that the economic viability of small-scale PV systems in Brazil depends primarily of the energy tariff and the solar radiation index and the probability of viability is higher for the Northeast of the country, considering the regions evaluated. Our results indicated a payback varying between 9 and 17 years and an internal rate of return varying between 10.75% and 16.35%, depending on the region of the country.