Construction of the Energy Baseline of the Pumping Station of Water Supply Taking into Consideration Cyclic Changes in Water Consumption

The article deals with the issues of construction the mathematical dependence of the pumping station's power consumption on the relevant variables based on the experimental data for determining the energy baseline that is adapted to changes in the production process. Structural-parametric identification of the power consumption model of the pumping station is accomplished using the combinatorial algorithm of the group method of data handling. This allows receiving candidate-models set, each of which is the best in its basic functions class, for each typical day of each season. The selection of a better structure of the power consumption model is realized based on the criteria for its adequacy (regularity, translation minimum, Schwartz, determination coefficient) and accuracy of the forecast using the morphological criterion. As a result, a structured multifactor model of power consumption is constructed. This model is adapted to the water supply regime for a typical day type of the appropriate season. The developed power consumption models allow taking into consideration the actual conditions of the pumping station functioning caused by the influence of seasonal and social factors. They take into consideration the cyclic changes of the technological process in accordance with the requirements of the ISO 50000 standards series. This allows determining the energy baseline for a specific time interval.