Long-Term Prediction of Significant Wave Height Based on SARIMA Model in the South China Sea and Adjacent Waters

Nowadays, the world is facing the dual crisis of the energy and environment, and renewable energy, such as wave energy, can contribute to the improvement of the energy structure of the world, enhance energy supply and improve the environment in the framework of sustainable development. Long-term prediction of the significant wave height (SWH) is indispensable in SWH-related engineering studies and is exceedingly important in the assessment of wave energy in the future. In this paper, the spatial and temporal characteristics of wave energy in the South China Sea (SCS), and adjacent waters are analyzed. The results show that there are abundant wave energy resources in the waters around the Taiwan Strait, the Luzon Strait, and the north part of the SCS with annual average SWH (SWH) of over 1.4 m and obvious increasing trend. Then, the SARIMA approach considers the relationship between the current time and the values, residuals at some previous time and the periodicity of the SWH series are proposed to forecast the SWH in the SCS and adjacent waters. The results obtained are promising, showing good performance of the prediction of monthly average SWH in the SCS and adjacent waters.