HAPEE, a prediction model of ionospheric scintillation in polar region

The main objective of the presented study is to propose a forecasting model of scintillation indices (here ROTI and σ_φ) for the polar region. A first proposition has been done in [1], with a simple empirical model driven by the Kp geomagnetic index, and for which the main output was the instantaneous mean ROTI value. Here, an updated model is proposed, where the main inputs are the solar wind parameters pressure, p, and the z component of the interplanetary magnetic field, B_z. Moreover, a distribution of predicted ROTI (5 minutes or 1 hour prediction) or σ_φ index is provided instead of a mean value. Thus, the model allows estimating the percentage of time of occurrence for a level of ROTI (or σ_φ) to be exceeded in the next 5 minutes or 1 hour, or the exceeded ROTI (or σ_φ) for a corresponding percentage of time. This paper is the result of a fruitful collaboration between the CNES, ONERA, NSC and NMA organizations.