Developing an En Route Facility Traffic Forecasting Capability Using Origin-Destination Segment Passenger Demand

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) publishes an annual Aerospace Forecast covering aviation activity in the National Airspace System (NAS), including en route Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) operational counts. The FAA uses the ARTCC forecast to inform staffing, budgetary, and other operational decisions for the facilities responsible for en route activity within the NAS.The ARTCC portion of the Aerospace Forecast is time-series based, utilizing historic counts of Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) aircraft handled by 21 ARTCCs and three Center Radar Approach Control Facilities (CERAPs). The existing forecasting methodology does not explicitly consider airline routes or passenger flows.The MITRE Corporation (MITRE), in collaboration with the FAA Office of Aviation Policy and Plans (APO), developed an ARTCC forecasting methodology using a quarterly origin-and-destination (O-D) passenger demand framework consistent with the Terminal Area Forecast (TAF). The TAF is the FAA's official annual forecast of airport activity, which incorporates O-D passenger demand and other market data at airports with 100,000 or more annual commercial enplanements. The ARTCC forecast combines predicted O-D segment counts from TAF with historic flight path distributions derived from the FAA Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS).Existing forecasts do not explicitly account for variance in flight path distribution. This paper provides a description of the methodology for this O-D segment-based ARTCC forecast.