Neural Network Model for Information Security Incident Forecasting

This paper describes the technology of neural network application to solve the problem of information security incidents forecasting. We describe the general problem of analyzing and predicting time series in a graphical and mathematical setting. To solve this problem, it is proposed to use a neural network model. To solve the task of forecasting a time series of information security incidents, data are generated and described on the basis of which the neural network is trained. We offer a neural network structure, train the neural network, estimate it's adequacy and forecasting ability. We show the possibility of effective use of a neural network model as a part of an intelligent forecasting system.