Time Series Forecast for Rainfall Intensity in Malang City with Naive Bayes Methodology

Rain is very important for life because every living things need water to live. But rainfall can become a problem if it comes with high intensity. Indonesia has a high rainfall intensity and this has become a problem for bringing floods. This of course brings many kinds of problems such as hindered everyday activities, disrupted transportation system, damaged personal properties, decreasing in economic activity, and more. To avoid anymore damages and loss caused by high rainfall intensity, an accurate rainfall forecast is essential. This forecast is important to scientifically predict possible outcomes that might happen in the future based on past and present information. Rainfall forecast can be done based on the factors that influence them by processing data from Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) with naive bayes methodology and laplace estimator. The result showed that in terms of rainfall intensity prediction, naive bayes and laplace estimator methodologies achieve 97.74% for accuracy, 2.26% of error rate, 100% for sensitivity and 97.74% for precission.