Analysis of Vehicle Survival Rates for Metro-Manila

Metro Manila, the national capital region of the Philippines, has led all regions in vehicle fleet and a compulsory vehicle scrappage standard has yet to be implemented. This paper aims to develop Metro Manila's vehicle survival rates, using the Weibull Distribution function and the data of vehicles registered in the Land Transport Office (LTO). A novel computation procedure is proposed how to develop the vehicle survival and scrappage rates for a metropolis not implementing the scrappage standard. The vehicles are classified into main three types: car, utility vehicle (UV) and bus. The results highlighted that the current average lifespans for car, UV and bus are 14.225, 13.929 and 11.529 years, respectively. The developed vehicle survival rates were used to calculate the scrappage rates and the cumulative scrappage rates, being very informative for projection of Metro Manila's vehicle fleet and scrappage intensity, and beyond that the computation procedure proposed in this paper is considerably important to develop vehicle survival rates for other countries having no data of vehicle scrappage intensity and distribution of vehicles by age.