An analytical method for accelerating calculations of the probability of power flows exceeding the tie-lines capacity

The paper presents a new approach for solving a part of adequacy problem- calculating the probability of power flows exceeding the tie-lines capacity The proposed method is based on Lagrange multipliers method applied to random values. Test results have shown a good accuracy of the proposed approach in case of using Monte Carlo simulation technique as a benchmark. The paper points out that the proposed method could significantly reduce the computation burden of Monte Carlo simulation technique and can be used in the solving power system development planning problem.