Operational Effectiveness Evaluation of the Swarming UAVs Combat System Based on a System Dynamics Model

Currently, the new operational tactic of the swarming unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) combat is becoming a hotspot in military research, and evaluating the combat efficiency and the roles of UAVs is of vital importance for the future development of UAVs. However, most of the recent studies on the swarming UAVs combat are merely qualitative analyses. This paper proposes an operational effectiveness evaluation method of the swarming UAVs combat system based on a system dynamics (SD) model. The weapons in the combat process are divided into nine subsystems and we build corresponding nine in-trees models using the rate-variable in-trees modeling method. The final SD model is established based on the nine in-trees and the characteristics of swarming UAVs are considered. Taking the surviving rate of UAVs and task completion degree as the evaluation indicators, the model simulation shows that over 50% of the enemy ground targets can be destroyed in 15-time units, although some UAVs may be damaged. It is also confirmed through comparison experiments with other combat patterns that the swarming UAVs play a crucial role in improving the system combat efficiency and can decompose the function of traditional high-value weapon platforms.