TOWARDS AN ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN IN EXPLORATORY MODELING

Exploratory modeling-as an approach for modeling under uncertainty-is based on the analysis of computational experiments representing many possible model responses in the face of uncertainty. Experiments are generated based on various design factors, such as the way uncertainties are defined and the techniques by which value sets are sampled from these uncertainties. The choice of the design of experiments can impact on the computational cost of experiments as well as has an effect on the results and the conclusions drawn from those results. Despite this significance, experimental design has not been adequately discussed in the exploratory modeling literature. This article investigates which dimensions and what methods should be considered for an appropriate design of experiments in exploratory modeling. We conclude that there is a need to develop an analytical framework which can assist modelers to design experiments appropriately and to consider a wide range of model responses.