Risk Assessment of Corporate Infocommunication Systems Projects Using Bayesian Networks

The article deals with the problem of risk assessment associated with the introduction of ERP-systems as the basic component of corporate infocommunication systems. This problem is very urgent, as the percentage of the failure of ERP systems implementation projects up to 70%. The proposed model allows to assess the overall risk of such projects as a combination of individual types of risk. They, in turn, are evaluated based on the definition of the probability of the risk factors. The mathematical apparatus used in this case is the Bayesian network of trust. The constructed model also makes it possible to recalculate the probabilities of individual nodes-factors based on the new facts about the state of the system. Application of the approach to the considered project of ERP implementation made it possible to identify the most significant risk factors: lack of a system development strategy, poor management of business process reengineering and inattention to staff resistance Allocation of groups of risk factors and evaluation of each of them on based probabilities more simple components make it possible to choice the strategy priority management development of ERP-systems.