Distinctive Features of Energy Demand Forecasting in the Non-Manufacturing Sector of the Economy

The paper relevance is stipulated by significance of energy supply of the non-manufacturing sector to improve quality of population living. Difficulties in modeling and forecasting of energy demand in this sector of the economy are explained by the necessity to consider a great number of competing factors and relations between the economy, energy sector and technological progress. One of the ways to overcome these difficulties is to identify objectively existing trends and regularities in the interrelated development of the economy and energy demand in the residential sector and service industry. The key long-term trends in energy demand by the nonmanufacturing sector in the most developed world countries and their peculiar manifestation in Russia are analyzed. The methodological approach and model to forecasting of the per capita energy consumption in the non-manufacturing sector in Russia are briefly described. The forecasts of the per capita energy consumption in the non-manufacturing sector are presented as a function of the economic development level.