A Provincial Long-term Electric Power Demand Forecast Model Based on The Theory of Chenery’s industrialization stage and Co-integration Model

The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed a two-step strategy and put forward new requirements for the development of power grid. Based on the theory of Chenery's industrialization stage, this paper uses horizontal comparison and target analysis to take Fujian Province as an example, adopts historical data of Fujian Province from 1990 to 2015, establishes the provincial electric power demand co-integration model and error correction model, then the model is verified by the actual electric power demand performance of year 2016-2017. The results show that the forecast model has validity. Finally, the long-term electric power demand of Fujian province in 2035 and 2050 years is forecasted and put forward in an optimistic, neutral, pessimistic scenarios set.