Modeling Stochastic Overload Delay in a Reliability-Based Transit Assignment Model

In this paper, we develop a reliability-based transit assignment model with capacity constraints that adopt a new stochastic overload delay formulation. The in-vehicle travel times and waiting times are set to random variables. We adopt the statistical characteristics of the normal distribution to model the stochastic overload delay. The stochastic overload delay gradually varies as the passenger flow changes. A method is developed based on the method of successive averages algorithm to solve the reliability-based transit assignment model. Moreover, numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate the properties of the proposed model and the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.