A New Path to Predict Succeptibility of Cocoa Pod Against Carmenta foraseminis (Busck) Eichlin Using a Mathematical Model

Theobroma cacao is one of the most important tropical crops, due to its socio-economic implications. In spite of being an acclimatable crop to diverse conditions it is susceptible to diseases and pests. Currently in Peru, Carmenta foraseminis, named cocoa fruit borer is an insect pest of economic importance in cocoa plantations, in this way, it is necessary to understand the relationship between susceptibility and fruit growth. To obtain data and information processing, the measures of 305 cocoa pods from eight international cocoa clones were used, such measurements they were analyzed under four mathematical models (Logistic, Richards, Gompertz and Beta). Richards function fitted better in the description of pod growth since it shows a portion of asymptotic curve. One of the clones such as SCA 6 is cropped in Peru, that, these results will be used to contrast with the data obtained from the study. This paper analyzes comparatively the growth mathematical models of the cocoa pod. Furthermore, knowing that larvae of Carmenta foraseminis affect the pod between 80 - 120 days of the phenological state of cocoa; through the Richards Model, the evaluation of the risk or susceptibility of infestation of the cocoa pods can be determined, promoting to optimize the control strategies and a prompt intervention against this phytopathogen, avoiding the quality of the overall harvest at risk.