Use of Computer Simulation Modeling to Reduce the Consequences of an Active Shooter Event in a Large Event Venue

Active shooter incidents are a growing concern within the United States. When means of mitigating the risk associated with threats and vulnerabilities are no longer viable, one must look to mitigate the consequences of an active shooter. This paper explored the means of mitigating the risk of a single active shooter incident within a large event venue increasing the number of armed off duty law enforcement officers available to respond to the incident. By running a computer simulation model of a stadium with 4,000 fans, the research group increased the number of armed off duty law enforcement officers and ran the simulation with a single active shooter. The research group then counted the number of fans shoot and graphed the results. The results showed a negative logarithmic relationship between the number of fans shot and the number of off duty law enforcement officers available. The logarithmic graph reached its base of 3 casualties at 38 law enforcement officers, or 0.7% of the total fan population. In a stadium with a seating capacity of 18,000, security would require 120-180 armed off-duty law enforcement officers to adequately mitigate the consequences of a single active shooter.