The energy performance of potential scenarios with large-scale PV deployment in Chile – a dynamic analysis

This paper investigates the implications of transitioning to more renewable electricity generation in Chile. The ongoing aggressive penetration of renewable energies in Chile reflects the large availability of solar, and to a lesser extent, wind-resources, and is a product of the ambitious national target to generate 60% of Chilean electricity from renewable sources by 2035. In addition, the electricity demand in Chile is expected to keep increasing over the next decades, and there are concerns about security of energy supply. We applied Net Energy Analysis (NEA) from a dynamic perspective, using a new metric, referred to as Power Return on Investment (PROI), which complements the information provided by the conventional Energy Return on Investment (EROI). We illustrated the methodological differences between these two indicators in terms of the direct electricity output, and equivalent primary energy. Results focus on photovoltaics (PV), and indicate significant opportunities for their large deployment, up to 40% of total electricity generation in the Chilean electric grids in 2035. Specifically, the PROI_PE-eq trends of PVs, which quantify the year-by-year “energy cost” associated to the renewable energy transition, improve significantly over the course of less than two decades in both our future scenarios (respectively, 10-fold in the “best case”-and 6fold in the “worst case”).