Capacity Credit Assessment of Demand Response Based on a Rigorous Uncertainty Modeling Framework

Under the smart-grid (SG) environment, demand response (DR) can play a role as virtual generation units, but due to the uncertainties arising from the demand side, it's challenging to identify the extent to which DR can be utilized. A new methodological framework has been proposed in this paper to assess the capacity credit (CC) of DR, which accommodates different types of uncertainties (i.e., probabilistic and possibilistic). The fuzzy theory is introduced and possibilistic models are proposed to describe the human-related uncertainties due to the incompleteness of information. In addition, the potential impacts of operation schemes on DR performance have also been considered. Using a probabilistic propagation technique, the different types of uncertainties involved can be normalized under the same framework. Then, the relevant models can be applied to the CC evaluation procedures, wherein two dispatching schemes (i.e., reliability-driven and coordinated management) are considered. The proposed methodology is demeonstrated on a modified RTS system.