Modeling and control of an epidemic disease under possible complication

When dealing with epidemic spread, a very common And dangerous situation is the presence of an epidemic disease and a complication, especially in an elderly population or a weakened one. In this case the complication, that alone is not, in general, a fatal disease, may become risky. The ad hoc resource allocation becomes a mandatory task, aiming at the most rationale control strategy. This is the aim of this work, in which a new model is introduced; five classes are considered: the susceptible one, the class of people that has got the immunity from the first dangerous disease (but not from the complication), the class of patients with first disease, the class of those in the risky situation of having both the diseases, and the category of individuals with only the second disease that can still caught the first serious one. Control actions are introduced, as vaccination and medication, studying the effects of the different strategies. Preliminary simulation results evidenced the effectiveness of the proposed approach, allowing to determine a control strategy that reduces the number of dead, with an efficient resource allocation.