An Adaptive, Data-Driven Personalized Advisor for Increasing Physical Activity

In recent years, there has been growing interest in the use of fitness trackers and smartphone applications for promoting physical activity. Many of these applications use accelerometers to estimate the level of activity that users engage in and provide visual reports of a user's step counts. When provided, most recommendations are limited to popular general health advice. In our study, we develop an approach for providing data-driven and personalized recommendations for intraday activity planning. We generate an hour-by-hour activity plan that is based on the user's probability of adhering to the plan. The user's probability of adherence to the plan is personalized, based on his/her past activity patterns and current activity target. Using this approach, we can tailor notifications (e.g., reminders, encouragement) to each user. We can also dynamically update the user's activity plan at mid-day, if his/her actual activity deviates sufficiently from the original plan. In this paper, we describe an implementation of our approach and report our technical findings with respect to identifying typical activity patterns from historical data, predicting whether an activity target will be achieved, and adapting an activity plan based on a user's actual performance throughout the day.