A MHMM Risk Prediction Assessment Method for the Ship Micro-Grid

A new risk prediction assessment method of the ship micro-grid is proposed in the article. Firstly, the paper puts forward the MHMM (Multi Hidden Markov Model) algorithm to predict the state probabilities of components in the continuous time points in the future. Secondly, according to the influence of external environment, the working states of the components of micro-grid are predicted by using the MHMM algorithm. Thirdly, the risk assessment model of network topology of the micro-grid is built, and power flow analysis under the abnormal condition are repeatedly calculated by using the Monte Carlo simulation. Finally the risk prediction assessment results is given. The article also takes a ship micro-grid as an example and the risk prediction assessment method is verified.