The Effectiveness of Counter-terrorism Policies Based on the Terrorism Decision

Counter-terrorism policies are classified into three kinds based on the terrorism decision whether to commit terrorist acts. The policy effectiveness is probed quantitatively. We find: The early effectiveness of proactive policies is positive, while the effectiveness ceaselessly becomes weaker on the whole. Passive policies have long term effectiveness though overall effectiveness is small. The initial effectiveness of policies dealing with root causes is little. However, the significance gradually increases. Among proactive policies, the military attack functions better in the early stage compared with the politics attack, while its effectiveness becomes weaker in the later stage. Among passive policies, reinforcing the law and system is more significant than improving the embassy guard in both the short and long term.