Changing to Power-Based Grid Pricing - An Incentive for Grid Defections in Nordic Conditions?

Distribution system operators' (DSO) operating environment is changing significantly since customers' distributed production, electric vehicles, heat pump systems and battery energy storage systems (BESS) are becoming more common. In this paper, the proportion of rural area customers in Nordic conditions who could go off-grid and operate independently by investing in solar photovoltaics (PV) and BESS is studied. Further, the effects on these customers' electricity bill is studied, and thereby to grid defection profitability, if DSO changes tariff system towards power-based tariff (PBT) is examined. Analyses are conducted with real customers' hourly load data from four different case areas, covering a total of 10808 customers. The study shows that the number of possible customers in the studied rural case areas is 8-19 %. If DSO changes the tariff structure from energy-based tariffs to power-based tariffs, it has significant effects on grid defection profitability whether the tariff structure includes minimum charged power or not.