Multi-Model Threat Assessment Involving Low Probability High Consequence Events

This paper describes a multi-model threat prediction scheme for autonomous agents making decisions in dynamic environments. The proposed multi-layered scheme utilizes argumentation, Transferrable Belief Model, Anytime Decision Making, rule-based techniques, and Choquet Integral based decision theory for situational awareness and action selection. We discuss theoretical foundations and provide high level architecture of an agent. We illustrate the scheme with an example scenario.